Boise, Meridian and Eagle Housing Market Update: October 2026
Oct 17, 2026 ·
September 2026 was a strong month for Treasure Valley home sales, but the story heading into Fall is mortgage rates. Ada County closed 854 single-family sales in September, its best September since 2021, at a median price of about $575,000. Then, within four weeks, the average 30-year mortgage rate jumped from the mid-6% range to above 7.4%.
That timing matters. Most September closings went under contract in August, before rates climbed. October and November numbers will show how buyers respond to higher borrowing costs.
Below, we break down the latest numbers for Ada and Canyon counties, what changed from August, how the Federal Reserve's September rate hike fits in, and what it all means if you plan to buy, sell, or move to the Boise area.
Boise Housing Market at a Glance: September 2026
| Metric | September 2026 | vs. August 2026 | vs. September 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sales price | $575,000 | down from $595,000 (-3.4%) | up roughly 3% |
| Homes sold | 854 | down from 955 (-10.6%) | +8.5% |
| Pending sales | 1,140 | down from 1,269 (-10.2%) | — |
| Active listings | 2,006 | up from 1,979 (+1.4%) | — |
| Average days on market | 39 | up from 37 | -4.9% |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | unchanged | down from about 3.0 |
| 30-year fixed rate (Freddie Mac) | 7.40% (Oct. 8) | up from 6.76% (Sept. 10) | — |
Sources: Intermountain MLS data as reported by Boise-area brokerages in October 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Year-over-year price change ranges from 2.9% to 3.6% depending on whether new construction is included.
Canyon County posted 419 sales (-0.7% year over year) at a median of $443,523 (+5.1%), with homes averaging 48 days on market and 2.6 months of supply.
Boise Home Prices: Did Prices Drop in September?
Ada County's median price slipped about $20,000 from August, but it remains roughly 3% higher than a year ago. A late-summer dip like this is common. August's $595,000 median was close to the 2022 peak, and fall sales tend to tilt toward lower price points. The bigger takeaway is how differently each city is behaving. Some submarkets posted double-digit annual gains while others moved lower.
| City | Median sold price, Sept. 2026 | Change vs. Sept. 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Eagle | $848,563 | -11.4% |
| Star | $642,688 | +12.4% |
| Meridian | $575,000 | +11.7% |
| Boise | $525,000 | -5.8% |
| Kuna | $476,000 | +6.0% |
| Garden City* | $474,450 | +11.8% |
| Middleton | $469,990 | +2.2% |
| Nampa | $434,945 | +4.8% |
| Caldwell | $412,450 | +3.2% |
City figures cover single-family homes on less than one acre, new and existing combined. *Garden City had fewer than ten sales, so treat its change with caution. Source: Intermountain MLS data as of Oct. 6, 2026.
A few things stand out:
Meridian and Star posted the strongest gains. Both have a large share of newer homes, and new construction has carried higher median prices all year.
Boise's median fell 5.8%, yet Boise homes are still among the fastest to sell in the valley, at a median of 12 days. Price per square foot in Boise actually rose 5.1% to $331, which suggests smaller or older homes made up more of September's sales rather than values falling.
Eagle's 11.4% drop reflects a small, high-end market where a handful of luxury sales can swing the median.
Canyon County remains the value play, with medians in Nampa and Caldwell roughly $140,000 to $160,000 below Ada County's.
Ada County Home Sales: Best September Since 2021
Buyers closed 854 homes in Ada County in September, up 8.5% from last year and the most for any September since 2021. That is about 100 fewer sales than August, which is a normal seasonal step down as summer ends.
Pending sales are the number to watch. They fell to 1,140, about 10% below August's 1,269. Pending sales are homes under contract that have not closed yet, so they hint at what October and November closings will look like.
Because most of those contracts were signed before rates passed 7%, the full effect of higher borrowing costs has not shown up yet. Some local agents reported slower buyer traffic in early October. We expect closed sales to cool further over the next two months, on top of the usual fall slowdown.
In Canyon County, sales were essentially flat year over year at 419, after several months of gains.
Housing Inventory and Days on Market: Is Boise a Buyer's Market?
Not yet. Ada County had 2.4 months of supply in September, well below the four to six months that signals a balanced market. Canyon County was close behind at 2.6 months.
Active listings edged up to 2,006, about 1% more than August. Supply is still tighter than a year ago, when Ada County had roughly 3 months of inventory.
Homes are selling faster than last year. Ada County homes averaged 39 days on market, down about 5% from September 2025 but slightly longer than August's 37 days. The median home went under contract in just 14 days, down from 26 a year earlier. In Boise proper, the median was 12 days.
What this means in practice:
Well-priced resale homes in established Boise neighborhoods still move quickly. Sellers in these areas hold most of the leverage.
New-construction communities offer more room to negotiate. Through the summer, new homes made up nearly half of Ada County's inventory and took longer to sell than resale homes. Builders in Meridian, Kuna, and Star often compete with rate buydowns or closing-cost credits.
Inventory usually peaks in early fall, then shrinks into winter. Buyers who want the widest choice have a narrowing window.
Mortgage Rates Top 7% After the Fed's September Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16, its first increase since 2023. The federal funds target range is now 3.75% to 4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had signaled the move at Jackson Hole in August, citing inflation that remained well above the Fed's 2% target.
Most Fed officials, 16 of 18, projected at least one more increase before the end of 2026. Minutes released October 7 repeated that another hike could be appropriate, depending on incoming data.
Mortgage rates moved quickly. The Freddie Mac average for a 30-year fixed loan climbed every week for a month:
| Date | 30-year fixed rate |
|---|---|
| Oct. 8, 2026 | 7.40% |
| Oct. 1, 2026 | 7.28% |
| Sept. 24, 2026 | 7.03% |
| Sept. 17, 2026 | 6.95% |
| Sept. 10, 2026 | 6.76% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
What higher rates mean for your monthly payment
Take Ada County's $575,000 median home with 20% down, a $460,000 loan. At 6.76%, principal and interest come to about $2,990 a month. At 7.40%, that rises to about $3,185, nearly $200 more every month. Put another way, a buyer who budgeted for that $2,990 payment can now borrow about $29,000 less.
It's worth remembering that the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, which respond to inflation and to expectations about future Fed moves. That is why rates climbed in the weeks around the hike, not just after it. They can also fall without a Fed cut if inflation cools.
Rather than trying to time rates, focus on a payment you are comfortable with. Ask lenders about builder buydowns, adjustable-rate options, and the ability to refinance later.
What's Driving Long-Term Growth in the Treasure Valley
Rates explain the short term. Jobs and infrastructure explain why demand for Treasure Valley housing keeps coming back. Three projects are worth knowing about.
Micron's Boise semiconductor expansion
Micron Technology's expansion in Boise is underway and is expected to support about 17,000 jobs, including roughly 3,500 direct technical roles, according to CNBC's August 2026 coverage. Micron is also building technician training and workforce programs.
That number won't translate into 17,000 new homebuyers overnight. The jobs include construction, supplier, and indirect roles that ramp up over several years. But a project this size supports steady housing demand, especially in areas with easy access to southeast Boise.
Nampa's $23 million federal BUILD grant
Nampa received a $23 million BUILD grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation. The money will fund bridge widening, road resurfacing, ADA-compliant sidewalks, and new traffic signals. Better roads make Canyon County a more practical option for buyers who commute into Boise or Meridian.
Middleton's $68 million wastewater plant expansion
Middleton has broken ground on a $68 million expansion of its wastewater treatment plant. The project helps the city meet water-quality standards and adds capacity for new neighborhoods. Sewer and water capacity often decides how fast a growing city can approve new homes, so this matters for future supply in western Canyon County.
What the October 2026 Market Means for You
If you're buying
Get your financing locked in early. With rates moving week to week, an updated pre-approval and a clear rate-lock plan protect your budget.
Compare new construction carefully. A builder's rate buydown can save more than a lower list price. Ask for the full loan estimate, not just the advertised rate.
Use the fall slowdown. Fewer buyers usually means less competition, more room on price, and sellers who are more open to credits for repairs or closing costs.
Look beyond one city. A $475,000 budget buys a very different home in Kuna, Nampa, or Middleton than it does in Boise.
If you're selling
Price for today's buyer, not last spring's. Buyers are absorbing a payment that rose about $200 a month in four weeks. Overpriced homes will sit.
Know your local competition. A resale home in an established Boise neighborhood faces a very different market than one competing with builder incentives in Meridian or Star.
Consider offering a rate buydown. Seller-paid buydowns can attract more buyers than a straight price cut of the same cost.
If you're relocating to the Treasure Valley
The Boise area still offers a strong job base, steady appreciation, and more affordable options than many West Coast markets. Start by deciding what matters most: commute, home age, lot size, schools, or price. Then let that guide which communities you explore. Newer homes cluster in Meridian, Kuna, and Star. Established neighborhoods with mature trees and character homes are concentrated in Boise.
Final Thoughts: A Strong September, an Uncertain Fall
September showed a healthy market: more sales than last year, prices up about 3%, and homes still selling quickly. Inventory remains tight, so the Treasure Valley is still a seller-leaning market overall.
What changes the outlook is the jump in mortgage rates. Expect October and November to show fewer pending sales, longer selling times, and more price reductions, especially in higher-priced and new-construction segments. The Fed's next decisions will depend on inflation, so rates could keep rising or settle back.
As always, averages only tell part of the story. Your neighborhood, price range, and home type matter far more than countywide numbers.
Thinking about buying or selling this Fall?
Please reach out to us to we can help you develop a sound strategy plan for you.
